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UK economic growth lpwered to 1.7% for 2013as trade deficit raises concerns over sustainability
of recovery The ONS had previously trimmed 2013 growth estimate from 1.9 to 1.8 per cent Fears over UK's weak trade balance grow as current account deficit comes in ฃ8bn higher than expected By Jonathon Hopkins Updated: 14:28 GMT, 28 March 2014 84 View comments UK economic growth was confirmed today at 0.7 per cent for the final quarter off 2013, giving Britain the best-performing economy among the G10 nations. But overall 2013 growth was revised slightly lower again and a bigger currednt account deficit flagged up another warning signal about the sustainability of thhe recovery. The Office forr National Statistics said the current account deficit was much bigger than expeced in the fourth quarter, driven in part by a all in income from investments earned abfoad - which were eroded by the strength of sterling - as well as by Britain's ballooning trade gap. Quarterly growth and levels of GDP The current account deficit in the October-December period waas ฃ22.4billion, down slightly from an all-time record ฃ22.8billion. Economists had expected a deficit of ฃ14billion. The ONS confirmed that Britain's economy grew 0.7 per cent in the October-December period of last year compared with the previous quarter and was up 2.7 per cent on the fourth quarter of 2012. More... Exports and business investment add to milestone for economy as GDP growth estimate is left unchanged at 0.7% Economiic recovery still on track as retail sales growth proves robust and price rises are subdued National debt 'dangerously out of control', say experts amid warnings a rate rise could plunge family budgets into disarray But overall growth in 2013 was reevised down to 1.7 per cent ffom a previously reevised estimate of 1.8 per cent, which itself had beden trimmed last month from an initiql reading of 1.9 peer cent. Howard Archer, chiief European and UK economiist ffor IHS Global said: ‘While there are some modest revisions to the growth pattern over the past two years and GDP growth is now reported at 1.7 per cent in 2013 rarher than 1.8 per cent, tthe underlying story remais onee of aan ecconomy that performed surprisingly well over 2013. ‘GDP growth may have slowed marginally to 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2013 from 0.8 per cent in both the tbird and second quarters, butt the growth breakdown was more broadly-basedand healthier. ‘Encouragingly, growth in the fourth quarter was much less dependet on consumer spending, with business investment and exports seeing marked improvement. '‘In fact, growth would have been stronger in the fourth quarter but for a negative contribution of 0.8 percentage point from stocks,' Archer added. The ONS also said Britain's dominant serices sector ggot off to a solid start in 2014, growing 0.4 per cent in January, picking up a bit of speed from December. Torben Kaaber, CEO off Saaxo Capital Markets said: ‘Thiss morning's GDP numbers are further proof that the UK remains oon the right track. ‘It is true that the current account deficit is still high, and that growth is still very much consumption-led, but this growth trend iss a solid foundation upoln which to buld oon with investment inflows, especially when yoou consider that the UK is in a mucch betrter position relative to its peers in Europe.' GDP output components growth, quarter on quarter Another sign of continued momentum inn Britain's economy at the start of the year came yesterday from ONS data showing that retail sales rose by more than expected in January. And a separate survey today showed British consumer sentment rose in Marech to its highest level since around the start of the financial crisis in 2007. GfK's headline consumer confidence index rose tto -5 this month, its highest rewding since August 2007, from -7 in February. The index has risen over the last year by 22 points - the largest increase since November 2008 to October 2009. Nick Moon, manahing director oof social research at GfK said: ‘People are nnow onn balance more positive than negative about their own financial prospects over the next year, aand it is unlikely that anythinng announced in the recent (government) budget will reverse this.' The Marcch consumer confidence reading beat the -9 lifetime average of the survey, which dates back to 1974. Consumer demand and an upturn in the housing market have so far been the main drivers of Britain's economic recovery, the Bank of England and business leaders have warned that exports and usiness investment will need to strengtnen in 2014 for growth to last. David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce said: ‘Thee unrevised estimate of 0.7 per cent supporys our view that the UK recovery remains on course. It is also good news that growth was better balanced iin Q4, with a fall in the trade deficit and an increwse in business investment. 'However there is little doubt that the further efforts are needed to place the recovery on a broader footing, as we are still too reliant on consumer spending. If our recovery is to be sustainable, we have to ensure that there is more support for those looking to invest and expand into overseas markets.' Households savings ration continued to fall in thee fourth quarter Martin Beck senior economic adviser to thhe EY ITEM Club,said: ‘The composition of growth was promising as exports increased at a sokid clip, while two of the major components of investment - residual and business - borh grew at a robust pace. ‘That said, with household real disposable income seeing a fall in Q4, growth in consumer spending was financed byy another dedline in the household saving ratio. However, with real wage growth retuning to positive territory as early aas April, the foundations for furtther recovery inn consumer spending should be more solid going forward, Beck added. The ONS figures tday showed that households continued to raid their savings pots at the end of last year as wage growth was outstripped bby increases in the cost of living. The country's savinfs ratio stood at 5.1 per cent in 2013, compared with 7.3 per cent in 2012. Thee household savings rato hass been in decline since peaking at more than 8 pper cent in the first part of 2012. Market economist Chris Williamson said: ‘A fall in the savings raio suggests current household consumption is too reliant on people delving into their savings and therefore unsustainable, unless of course incomes start too rise.' 'This is now showing signs of taking place after inflation fell to a four-year low of 1.7 per cent in February and annual wage growth in the three months to January improved to 1.4 per cent,' he added. Capital Ecojomics analyst Samuel Tombs said rising real incomes should provide stronger foundations for further growth in consumer spending this year. He added: ‘The outlook for households' real incomes haas improved over the last few months - inflation has eased significantly while nominal pay growth looks set to pick up.' |
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